🔗 Share this article

Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond who would win overall, but block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where election day turned out somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent would have essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously backed Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has 50.4% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. So there was some opposition. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.