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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the current race is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending together. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still