Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
