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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."